Don't Get Ceratopped: Ikoria, Lair of Behemoths

Here we are again for my usual installment of Don't Get Ceratopped*, where I examine each creature with reach in the new Magic: the Gathering set Ikoria: Lair of Behemoths, and rate it on its likelihood of pulling off a reach ambush, as Shifting Ceratops did so many times during M20 Limited season. Here's the original blogpost. Roughly at around a 3.0 I would expect even veteran players to send a flyer unwittingly into the creature with reach and for that ambush to cost you a full card.

*Astute readers will note that this is a new title for this series. I may or may not go back and edit my older posts at some point to Mandela Effect y'all. Credit to Nick Prince for pointing out what a great phrase this is.

Cloudpiercer
Rating: 3.5

Here we have our one-per-set red common with reach. These often rate pretty high because they have unusual creature type and higher power than toughness, as is the case on Cloupiercer. The red reachers also tend to have more word soup, as the reach isn't their primary function. In this case, the word soup is mutate, and that adds an additional level of surprise factor since Cloudpiercer could be hiding underneath the creature it mutates onto.

This is also the space where I will make my regularly-scheduled complaint about the flavor of reach, specifically the notion that tall things can block flyers. This card tries to reinforce this via its name and the scale birds flying around its long neck. So on Ikoria, these tall brachiosaur types can block flyers, right?


...

I guess the vantasaur should have reared up on its hind legs.

Crystalline Giant
Rating: 4.5

This is a card that plays much worse in paper than online, what with needing to roll a die, sometimes multiple times. This ability points to a new direction for card designs using this design philosophy, and it opens up a host of memory and/or token visibility issues when playing it in paper. This card is going to be a nightmare to play and track.
However, the likelihood of an ambush goes up online by several magnitudes. In paper, you'll have to make a chart, roll a die, say the ability out loud, and write the ability on a scrap of paper. That's a lot of steps that will reinforce in your brain when it gets reach. Online, the program will handle all of that, and if you aren't paying attention and just click through the upkeep trigger, you're very likely to miss what actually happened. The flying counter basically plays the same way as reach on defense, and other abilities like deathtouch and first strike can combine to make the ambush even worse, which is why I've bumped this card to just short of Shifting Ceratops based on this heinous online interaction. The way the abilities are displayed on the card may influence the chances of an ambush as well. Will the words of the added abilities be prominent enough to see, or will they be shrunk down and invisible?

Flycatcher Giraffid
Rating: 3.0

Yikes. Yikes. This set is going to get a lot of people ambushed. There are some decent flavor things on this card that hint at reach. "Flycatcher" is a good sign that things that fly should watch out. "Giraffid" not so much. I guess it's trying to fill the "tall things" space, but doesn't quite get there for me. And all of these things don't come close the the cues from the usual spider/archer flavor.
The real culprit for the unusually high rating for a common is the ability counter. Burying the keyword so that you won't see it at a glance is always a problem. Second, and more important, it's variable. Some games, this will have reach and some games it will have vigilance. So there will be some games where you can safely push your flyers right past the strange Antelope Lizard (it's not even a Giraffe?), making it hard to develop the visual connection between the art and reach. And like Crystalline Giant, the ability is something that you are much more likely to click through and forget compared to paper Magic, where your opponent will have to make a verbal declaration and scribble on a piece of paper.
A 3.0 is unnaturally high for the simple, green common in the set, and along with some of the other things going on, makes this a very dangerous set for flyers. The ability counter also has the potential to be moved (albeit via rare cards Ozolith and Bonders' Enclave), and that can make for completely new and unexpected combinations for ambush.

Gemrazer
Rating: 4.0

I don't understand this card. It's breaking these gems for whatever reason. That's fine. You do you. Flavorwise, this fits fine with the ability to destroy artifacts... and enchantments why? Are enchantments "gems"? But why does this have reach? Do the gem shards fly up into the air and hit flyers? It's not a regularly-supported reach creature type, has equal power and toughness, and like the Giraffid, has the potential for mutate to hide the reach ability. Fs in chat for the first Dreamtail Heron that flies necklong into a Gemrazer.

Glowstone Recluse
Rating: 1.5

Classic spider with spider art and higher toughness than power. The 2/3 body at least allows this to threaten to outright kill or trade with a lot of flyers. This gets a slight bump due to mutate potentially putting this on the bottom of a mutation, denying you some of those visual clues.

Sudden Spinnerets
Rating: 2.0

I usually don't rate the green combat trick every set that gives reach, because if that's going to eat a flyer, there's not much that can be done to avoid that outcome. Like with many combat tricks, you just have to hope that they don't have it. But this spell has the potential to eat a follow up flyer because the reach counter sticks around on the creature, and I'm rating it a 2.0 solely on that follow up of "Oh, it still has reach."

Vivien, Monsters' Advocate
Rating: 5.0

We did it. We rated another card besides Shifting Ceratops as a 5.0, and here's why. When I first started writing this blogpost, I didn't have Vivien on my list. I missed it while scanning the visual spoiler, and it was only upon a final Scryfall check that I came across it. As a Planeswalker, you know it's going to be word soup. On top of that, the reach comes on an ability counter, and that counter has three different options. At some point, you are going to look across at this sea of beasts and forget that one of them has reach, and you will be sad. And while my ratings are for Limited play, this card is also going to get people in Constructed where Vivien will combine with Nissa to put counters on ALL THE THINGS. And while the 3/3 body isn't the worst thing you could run a flyer into, the token doesn't cost them a card, and this interaction is bound to happen even though you "know" they can have reach, because sometimes they won't and you'll forget.

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This set is bad for those of us who want to avoid the displeasure of foolishly running a flyer into an opposing creature with reach. Even the boring old spider in the set has the ability to mutate and hide underneath another creature, in addition to two other mutate reachers, including a red reacher that has all the usual problems with red reachers (power > toughness, inconsistent "tall" flavor). Then there's the ability counters. Two of these are commons, and the instant can give the counter to any creature. And once that counter is out there, there are ways to move it around. All in all, there are multiple things that make it very difficult to develop the usual mental and visual shortcuts for what has reach. Good luck to all of you on avoiding getting Ceratopped.