Don't Get Ceratopped: Ikoria, Lair of Behemoths

Here we are again for my usual installment of Don't Get Ceratopped*, where I examine each creature with reach in the new Magic: the Gathering set Ikoria: Lair of Behemoths, and rate it on its likelihood of pulling off a reach ambush, as Shifting Ceratops did so many times during M20 Limited season. Here's the original blogpost. Roughly at around a 3.0 I would expect even veteran players to send a flyer unwittingly into the creature with reach and for that ambush to cost you a full card.

*Astute readers will note that this is a new title for this series. I may or may not go back and edit my older posts at some point to Mandela Effect y'all. Credit to Nick Prince for pointing out what a great phrase this is.

Cloudpiercer
Rating: 3.5

Here we have our one-per-set red common with reach. These often rate pretty high because they have unusual creature type and higher power than toughness, as is the case on Cloupiercer. The red reachers also tend to have more word soup, as the reach isn't their primary function. In this case, the word soup is mutate, and that adds an additional level of surprise factor since Cloudpiercer could be hiding underneath the creature it mutates onto.

This is also the space where I will make my regularly-scheduled complaint about the flavor of reach, specifically the notion that tall things can block flyers. This card tries to reinforce this via its name and the scale birds flying around its long neck. So on Ikoria, these tall brachiosaur types can block flyers, right?


...

I guess the vantasaur should have reared up on its hind legs.

Crystalline Giant
Rating: 4.5

This is a card that plays much worse in paper than online, what with needing to roll a die, sometimes multiple times. This ability points to a new direction for card designs using this design philosophy, and it opens up a host of memory and/or token visibility issues when playing it in paper. This card is going to be a nightmare to play and track.
However, the likelihood of an ambush goes up online by several magnitudes. In paper, you'll have to make a chart, roll a die, say the ability out loud, and write the ability on a scrap of paper. That's a lot of steps that will reinforce in your brain when it gets reach. Online, the program will handle all of that, and if you aren't paying attention and just click through the upkeep trigger, you're very likely to miss what actually happened. The flying counter basically plays the same way as reach on defense, and other abilities like deathtouch and first strike can combine to make the ambush even worse, which is why I've bumped this card to just short of Shifting Ceratops based on this heinous online interaction. The way the abilities are displayed on the card may influence the chances of an ambush as well. Will the words of the added abilities be prominent enough to see, or will they be shrunk down and invisible?

Flycatcher Giraffid
Rating: 3.0

Yikes. Yikes. This set is going to get a lot of people ambushed. There are some decent flavor things on this card that hint at reach. "Flycatcher" is a good sign that things that fly should watch out. "Giraffid" not so much. I guess it's trying to fill the "tall things" space, but doesn't quite get there for me. And all of these things don't come close the the cues from the usual spider/archer flavor.
The real culprit for the unusually high rating for a common is the ability counter. Burying the keyword so that you won't see it at a glance is always a problem. Second, and more important, it's variable. Some games, this will have reach and some games it will have vigilance. So there will be some games where you can safely push your flyers right past the strange Antelope Lizard (it's not even a Giraffe?), making it hard to develop the visual connection between the art and reach. And like Crystalline Giant, the ability is something that you are much more likely to click through and forget compared to paper Magic, where your opponent will have to make a verbal declaration and scribble on a piece of paper.
A 3.0 is unnaturally high for the simple, green common in the set, and along with some of the other things going on, makes this a very dangerous set for flyers. The ability counter also has the potential to be moved (albeit via rare cards Ozolith and Bonders' Enclave), and that can make for completely new and unexpected combinations for ambush.

Gemrazer
Rating: 4.0

I don't understand this card. It's breaking these gems for whatever reason. That's fine. You do you. Flavorwise, this fits fine with the ability to destroy artifacts... and enchantments why? Are enchantments "gems"? But why does this have reach? Do the gem shards fly up into the air and hit flyers? It's not a regularly-supported reach creature type, has equal power and toughness, and like the Giraffid, has the potential for mutate to hide the reach ability. Fs in chat for the first Dreamtail Heron that flies necklong into a Gemrazer.

Glowstone Recluse
Rating: 1.5

Classic spider with spider art and higher toughness than power. The 2/3 body at least allows this to threaten to outright kill or trade with a lot of flyers. This gets a slight bump due to mutate potentially putting this on the bottom of a mutation, denying you some of those visual clues.

Sudden Spinnerets
Rating: 2.0

I usually don't rate the green combat trick every set that gives reach, because if that's going to eat a flyer, there's not much that can be done to avoid that outcome. Like with many combat tricks, you just have to hope that they don't have it. But this spell has the potential to eat a follow up flyer because the reach counter sticks around on the creature, and I'm rating it a 2.0 solely on that follow up of "Oh, it still has reach."

Vivien, Monsters' Advocate
Rating: 5.0

We did it. We rated another card besides Shifting Ceratops as a 5.0, and here's why. When I first started writing this blogpost, I didn't have Vivien on my list. I missed it while scanning the visual spoiler, and it was only upon a final Scryfall check that I came across it. As a Planeswalker, you know it's going to be word soup. On top of that, the reach comes on an ability counter, and that counter has three different options. At some point, you are going to look across at this sea of beasts and forget that one of them has reach, and you will be sad. And while my ratings are for Limited play, this card is also going to get people in Constructed where Vivien will combine with Nissa to put counters on ALL THE THINGS. And while the 3/3 body isn't the worst thing you could run a flyer into, the token doesn't cost them a card, and this interaction is bound to happen even though you "know" they can have reach, because sometimes they won't and you'll forget.

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This set is bad for those of us who want to avoid the displeasure of foolishly running a flyer into an opposing creature with reach. Even the boring old spider in the set has the ability to mutate and hide underneath another creature, in addition to two other mutate reachers, including a red reacher that has all the usual problems with red reachers (power > toughness, inconsistent "tall" flavor). Then there's the ability counters. Two of these are commons, and the instant can give the counter to any creature. And once that counter is out there, there are ways to move it around. All in all, there are multiple things that make it very difficult to develop the usual mental and visual shortcuts for what has reach. Good luck to all of you on avoiding getting Ceratopped.

The Bird is the Word: Tips on Using Articuno in Ultra League

(This is a copy paste of a reddit post I made on TheSilphArena, saved in this form for posterity. It's also my first foray into writing about Pokemon Go PvP.)
I started Season 1 Ultra League at Rank 8, 2017 rating, and after going 157-102-1, I made it to Rank 9 with a 2510 rating. 60% win rate, or 3-2 sets, doesn’t seem like much, but positive is positive, allowing me to rank up when I was basically treading water at the end of Great League. Anyway, here’s Wonderwall--I mean my team:

Articuno (Lead)
(Shadow) CP 2494, 5/10/13, Ice Shard, Icy Wind, Ancient Power
(Regular) CP 2496, 11/11/14, Ice Shard, Icy Wind, Hurricane
Swampert CP 2490, 0/11/15, Mud Shot, Hydro Cannon, Earthquake
Registeel CP 2401, 14/12/12, Lock-On, Flash Cannon, Focus Blast

I ran the Shadow Articuno from the beginning until the Ancient Power nerf, then switched to a legacy version with Hurricane. The Swampert is a decent stat product that will lose the mirror CMP, but that’s okay since I usually line up Articuno against opposing Swamperts. The Registeel is pretty bad, but it was a lucky, so I maxed it, and it still goes to work doing its Registeel things (beep, beep, beep).

Like any lead Pokemon, Articuno has good matchups (Giratina, Togekiss, Grass types) and bad matchups (Steel and Fire). What makes it such a powerful lead is the way it plays in the neutral part of the field. These are matchups where the outcome isn’t obvious based simply on type advantage, and in some cases, the typing may be unfavorable (looking at you, Poliwrath with its Ice resistance). And yet, Articuno can come out ahead in these matchups, giving you the switch advantage, and overall control over the way the rest of the game plays out.

Shield the first move
Swampert, Poliwrath, Snorlax, Clefable, and Alolan Muk are all favorable matchups in the 1v1 shield scenario, but it’s important to shield the first charge move, especially if it comes out before the Icy Wind. Any subsequent charge moves will be debuffed, so shielding the opening charge move will save you the most HP, giving you more play in the mid-game. Yes, even against Snorlax and its relatively weak Body Slam, shielding that first 35 damage is the difference in the 1v1.
The key to this strategy is to win the switch advantage in these neutral leads, even at the cost of losing the shield advantage (but only going down 1 shield). Between Swampert and Registeel, I have most of the rest of the field pretty well covered, and in some of the most common back-end matchups, I can win with a 1-shield deficit (Swampert vs. Registeel and Registeel vs. Giratina), so it’s just a matter of staying in a favorable matchup. It might be tempting to switch out your Articuno and bank an Icy Wind for later, but it is usually correct to just let it go down to maintain switch advantage.
If they switch out, there’s a quick decision to be made. For safe switches like Snorlax, I generally just stay in with Articuno and follow the 1-shield strat. The exception might be if their lead was a Grass type. Since Swampert has such a bad matchup there, I want to bring it in against their safe switch to get some use out of it. In that case, I might not shield the first Body Slam, but leave the Snorlax with a parting Icy Wind before bringing in Swampert to save some damage.

Be patient
If you watch your respective HP bars, it often looks like you are losing as you will hit yellow first. Be patient and trust in your Icy Wind debuffs. Many matchups turn in your favor after the second one takes effect. Playing with Articuno is a test of wills. Run through a couple of common matchups on PvPoke.com to reassure yourself that you can win these matchups. For me, Poliwrath was one that I kept switching out of until I ran the 1v1 sim and saw that it favored me (and that was before using Hurricane instead of Ancient Power, which makes the matchup even easier).
The come-from-behind aspect of Articuno’s wins can also have a psychological effect on your opponents, as they notice they are starting to fall behind in the damage race. This can result in panic shielding, as they try to get off one more charge move on you. This is great for you. As I said, you still win most neutral matchups in a 1v1, and they are using their shield to launch a heavily debuffed charge attack that does little damage and still won’t flip the lead. Heck, in some of these matchups (Swampert, Snorlax), you win even if they shield twice and you only shield once. That’s how deceptively powerful Articuno is.

Stand back; there’s a Hurricane coming through
For most of the Ultra League, I’ve used my Shadow Articuno with Ancient Power. I liked that the shadow bonus flipped a few matchups in my favor (Armored Mewtwo being the most notable). When Ancient Power got nerfed, it was overall good news for Articuno, since the Giratina Altered matchup got a lot easier, but I also lost my best weapon to fight back against Charizard. The day of the nerf, I powered up a legacy Articuno with Hurricane and tested it out. The move doesn’t come up too often, but the one place where it made a huge difference was against Poliwrath. This used to be real tough. As I said, I was actually switching out because of the Ice resistance. Even staying in, the matchup is a slog that leaves you with no HP or energy.
Until I tried Hurricane. It’s almost a One-Hit KO with the Ice Shard chip damage. However, I think charging up to it as your first charge move is a mistake. Poliwrath players who know the timing of your Icy Winds will smell this from a mile away and shield. My preferred play is to use an Icy Wind first (still shielding their first charge move). I’ve never had anyone shield the first one. You can even overcharge by one Ice Shard to throw off their move count. The Icy Wind will still connect before their second charge move. Then tank their second charge move and launch the Hurricane. I’ve done this four or five times now, and thus far never been shielded, coming out of the matchup with almost half of my HP.
It’s possible that there are other situations where a surprise Hurricane will do some work. But for now, just the way that it has turned my Poliwrath matchup into an easy win has been worth it compared to the number of times Ancient Power did anything (I killed a Charizard once…)

Taking the L
“But you lose to Fire and Steel leads.” Yes, I sure do, although I have had hard-fought wins against both, by and large, those are likely losses assuming they have a Grass-type to eat my Swampert after I switch. This is the reality of the meta, and despite all the conspiracy theories about the pairing algorithm, by keeping track of all my matchups, I can tell you that I’ve faced a Fire or Steel lead 52 times in 262 Ultra battles to date (not counting Steelix, which is actually neutral due to its Ground typing). Over that same period, I’ve faced 51 Giratina Altered, Togekiss, and Grass leads, the things that I would consider to be hard-countered by Articuno (Giratina matchup was a bit more difficult before the Ancient Power nerf, but still favorable albeit requiring matching shields--now it usually induces a switch).
So yeah, don’t fall into the confirmation bias when you happen to face a Charizard and a Registeel lead back-to-back. Keep track of your matches and look at the big picture. For Articuno, the hard losses and wins have evened out for me, I have found ways to win the soft middle ground, and a good team to deal with most of the back, which is how I’ve (slowly) climbed up the ranks.
You will have bad luck where you run into fire and steel 3 times in a set of 5. You can panic and change your lead, then cry “conspiracy” when you start facing Venusaurs with your Swampert lead, or you stay the course, trust the regression to the mean, and Ice those Grass leads.